When National came to power in 2023, one of its first acts was to repeal all useful climate change policy. And now this is having its inevitable consequences, with he Pou a Rangi reporting that we are at significant risk of missing our 2026-35 budgets, and the 2050 target:
New Zealand is at significant risk of missing its 2050 climate target, and the government's actions have increased the risk, according to independent monitoring.That's the polite way of putting it. The blunt way is that the margin on EB2 is very tight and might not happen, while there are insufficient reductions to meet EB3, and two thirds of those are marked as "significant risk of delivery" - pure hot air. So the government needs to do more. He Pou a Rangi has a bunch of suggestions - cutting pollution subsidies, pushing the shift to EVs and industrial electrification, decarbonising farming - but it seems unlikely that a government ideologically hostile to climate action will take them. Instead they're more likely to end He Pou a Rangi's statutory monitoring role, to ensure nothing undermines their real policy of doing nothing.The Climate Change Commission's 2025 emissions reduction monitoring report said New Zealand had made steady progress on reducing its climate pollution, but urgent action was needed to get on track for future goals.
The report had shown the country was likely to meet the government's first emissions budget, which runs from 2022 to 2025, in part due to accounting changes in the way emissions were measured.
However, the risks of missing targets from 2026 onwards had risen in the past year, and the government's plans were insufficient to put the country on track long-term.
The good news is that this report is strong evidence for the Environmental Law Initiative's judicial review of the next emissions reduction plan, increasing the chances it will be found to be inadequate and forced to be revised. But if that happens, I guess we'll see the regime attack fundamental judicial review rights as well.
And whichever way that goes, it is crystal clear that the next government will need to take immediate action to restore and strengthen climate policy, and make up for National's three wasted years. This will mean much harder emissions cuts than we would have had to make if National had simply continued previous policy. But that's what happens when you kick the can down the road: eventually, the future arrives, and you need to actually deal with the problems you've been denying.
The full report is here.